MAY 2007 ISSUE
READERS' FORUM
Outdated Remarks Ignore Global Warming Data Verification
Re: Global warming.
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from the observation of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”
“Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years.”
Given the above quotations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s, WGI Fourth Assessment Report, Summary for Policy Makers, the opposition to my remarks regarding the “hockey stick curve” (four letters, including a reprint from the previous month) is curious to say the least. The attacks centre on the article by Mann, et al. (1999) and ignore verification of their findings by close to a dozen other studies based on models and proxy data (www.realclimate.org).
The “flaws” in statistics in the Mann, et al. paper have been well known and sufficiently addressed by the scientific community. In fact a study by Rutherford, et al., (2004), virtually replicates the earlier findings. The uncertainties associated with climate reconstruction prior to 1600 AD in the Mann, et al., paper are due to a lack of data. This gap has been filled since the last IPCC report and the data now allow for a high degree of confidence in recon-structions back 1,300 years.
Also misleading are remarks that imply that current warming is merely a return to normal from cooler con-ditions during the so-called Little Ice Age. The climate system does not act as a spring that returns to normal once disturbed; rather, it responds to all forcing, and can change rapidly and radically over short intervals. In addition, the climate record from proxy data begins at least 500 years prior to the onset of the Little Ice Age, which began around 1250 AD, and indicates that current warming is anomalous.
Gwynne Dyer, in a March 8 talk at the University of Calgary, said that British Parliament has passed legislation allowing for development of a new generation of nuclear weapons. The reason is not to combat terrorism — it is so Britain can protect itself from threats due to global climate change.
Global climate change has far greater potential to cause social and economic upheaval than other more common factors. Given a business-as-usual approach, greenhouse gases could reach 550 p.p.m. of carbon dioxide by 2035, resulting in a 2 C rise of global temperature with a 77 per cent to 99 per cent confidence level, depending upon climate model used. See Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, prepared for the British Government.
Without addressing carbon dioxide emissions, levels could treble by 2100, resulting in a 50 per cent risk of warming exceeding 5 C, the Stern Review says. Increased heating, due to carbon dioxide emissions, causes expansion of the Hadley cells: warm moist air rises in the tropics and descends as warm dry air, resulting in deserts from 20 to 30 degrees north and south latitudes. At this level of heating, entire regions experience major declines in crop yield (up to one third of Africa, for example) and yields in developed regions decline, says the review.
These outcomes can be averted by rapid and substantial cuts to carbon dioxide emissions at an estimated investment of about one per cent of GDP per year (see Coward, H. and Weaver, A. J., eds., 2004: Hard Choices: Climate Change in Canada).
With leadership and commitment, this can be done.
J. Ed Mathison, P.Geol.
Calgary
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Musings on Turnout Of APEGGA Voters
Re: Special Ballot Details, the e-PEGG,
April 17.
You state, “It is interesting to note that on average 15 to 20 per cent
of professional members exercise their privilege in the annual Council elections.”
Yes, it’s a sad statement of affairs, and also an indictment of the APEGGA organization and the enthusiasm of its members. I did not vote either.
I have been a member since 1975 and during this time have seen little evidence that beyond “upholding the law” – that is, public safety and the Engineering, Geological and Geophysical Professions Act – APEGGA has had any relevance. Maybe I am blind.
I know that APEGGA is not an advocacy organization, nor a union or club that defends its members. It only seems to be able to give “negative” rewards, such as discipline and some minor recognition of long-term service, etc.
Call me a cynic, but maybe with ASET members under our act, there will now be more advocacy on members’ behalf, as well as more spirited debates on which roles APEGGA should pursue with more vigour.
Actually, it seems we are headed in the right direction, at least we could be. We will see when the baby boomer retirement wave really gets going, and calls for more and quicker immigration of “professional engineers” become even more strident. For that matter, calls for immigration of technologists – or anyone who has any inkling of knowledge in our fields – will also become more strident.
Or, heaven forbid, what if the entire oil sands rush fizzles, 10,000 members lose their jobs, and wages drop, again, just as they did in the 1980s.
There is an alternative people resource, these days, and it’s a mere Internet connection way. Companies are in the business of satisfying their shareholders first. Maybe that’s why the land rush back to Saskatoon and Nova Scotia or elsewhere is gathering steam.
Adam Mateyko, P.Eng.
Calgary
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U of S Alumni Gather for Golf
Registration deadline is May 11 for the 18th annual Calgary University of Saskatchewan Engineers’ Alumni Social and Golf Tournament. The event itself is on May 25 at Lakeside Greens Golf Club in Chestermere.
Check in is at 7:30 a.m., with a shotgun start at 8 a.m. Social is at 2 p.m.
To register, contact Christopher Regier at 403-276-6449 or e-mail kiffernathan@shaw.ca.
See you there!
Lesley McGilp, P.Eng.
Calgary