july 2009 issue
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President's Notebook
An Emerging Employment Picture
It happened quickly. Alberta went from having a job surplus in many sectors to being part of a deep global recession. But young graduates, take heart — there is reason for cautious optimism
BY JIM BECKETT, P.ENG.
APEGGA President
Many future engineers and geoscientists are pounding the pavement right now, looking for positions as members-in-training so they can launch their careers in earnest. It’s a tough slog for not only the Class of 2009 but also anyone else looking for employment. In fact some of our current and future members are being advised to find jobs unrelated to their careers until the market changes.
What a difference a year makes. In 2008, employers were snagging graduates before their degrees had even come back from the printer.
Things have certainly changed, but history does have a way of repeating itself. When I graduated in 1973, it took me several months to find a job in engineering, and I can remember how disheartening it was to stand on the threshold of my chosen profession and not find anyone willing to beckon me across. I would like, however, to add my voice to those who call for patience. Prospects will improve, as they did shortly after I entered the workforce.
It’s easy for me to say, at this stage in my career. Many economists call this recession the worst since the Great Depression, and I can certainly attest that this is a tougher job market than I faced, resumé in hand.
I am not an economist or an expert on the dynamics of the job market, of course, so I won’t fill this space with hollow assurances. I’ll turn to the indicators and documentation I do have, however, and pass along some notion of what the future might look like.
Two recent surveys and studies speak directly to this issue. A little over a year ago, APEGGA completed a white paper called Labour Market Assessment 2007-2016, which attempted to predict Alberta’s supply and demand for engineers and geoscientists for a decade. The other is the May 2009 final report of the Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study, commissioned by Engineers Canada and the Canadian Council of Technicians and Technologists, and funded by the Government of Canada.
If you want to read the reports in depth and learn about the methodology used, the More Info box with this article tells you where to find them. Also, this edition of The PEGG examines the national study and report in a story on page 13. Here, I’m going to take a high-level look at some trends that impact future professionals.
The national study alone generated nine different reports, in addition to the final report. It represents an impressive array of data.
It needs to be noted that the data in both the APEGGA and the national study were collected before the economy tanked. Some would say that’s unfortunate. I’m going to suggest the reverse is true.
Looking at the future from the depths of a crash that took many by surprise — and was, frankly, precipitated primarily by events beyond Canada’s borders — will not reveal the best or most accurate picture of the future.
The optimism and state of the labour market reflected when things were good, I suggest, are more indicative of what the future holds, as long as we are prepared to take the results of these studies with the proverbial grain of salt.
Skills Shortages — And Skills Underemployment
For me, several trends jump from the page of the Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study. (Sorry — the data in this report doesn’t directly speak to geoscience.) The report notes that even amid a skills shortage, some sectors in engineering and engineering technology featured significant unemployment.
This suggests that future employers of our professions, educational institutions and traditions need to encourage graduates in the areas that need the skills. That’s a whole other topic in itself and one I’m sure our universities are taking seriously, but it also speaks, I think, to those grads on the market right now.
As the economy turns around, grads need to recognize where shortages exist. You select a discipline in university, but one of the great things about our professions is that you can choose or modify your own scope through upgrading and experience. What I’m saying is don’t put your career inside too tight a box.
An almost universal conundrum for anyone looking for work is how to gain experience. You can’t get a job because you’ve never had one in your chosen field. This was already a problem in the job market, and I suspect the current situation has only exacerbated it.
Demographics, however, are about to start working in favour of younger professionals. Statistics Canada says the 15-19 age cohort peaks this year at a little more than 2.2 million people in Canada and begins to fall. By 2017, the cohort will have dropped to under two million.
Again, this is a loaded demographic for educational institutions. Unless they are successful in attracting additional applicants to engineering and geoscience, the pool of home-grown professionals will start to shrink. It does mean the efforts to recruit a higher percentage of indigenous peoples and women into the professions are even more warranted than they were a few years ago. As many of you may know, APEGGA plays a role in those initiatives, too.
But from a grad’s perspective, it means more employers will need to invest in those new graduates with limited or no workplace experience.
The Alberta Scene
Here in Alberta, we will probably not see the kind of tight supply of skilled labour we just came through. That’s what the APEGGA Labour Market Assessment suggests.
Although it predicts demand will continue to grow for our professionals, the supply side will, over time, match and even surpass demand, largely because of the growth in applications for licensure with APEGGA. At the time of the survey, Alberta was training only 20 per cent of those who applied for licences.
By 2016, the study estimates, the demand for engineers and geoscientists will have increased to 47,500 from 38,000. Supply will be about 51,000, it says.
I don’t think this is cause for alarm. The report simply points out that Alberta will continue to be a popular place for engineers and geoscientists. A certain number of licensed members, however, will find opportunities elsewhere — either in other jurisdictions, through the ever-improving professional mobility situation, or in other, non-technical roles. I’m not saying this is what we want, but it is a fact of life for a certain percentage of members in any job market.
Here’s some more data that might help job-searching members and graduates. The assessment’s survey of APEGGA permit holders suggests that the hot category through to 2016 will be civil engineering, at more than 7,300 hires. Electrical engineering (my discipline), the report suggests, will need about 4,850 hires, mechanical engineering 3,080, chemical engineering 2,450, and petroleum engineering 1,570. The categories continue dropping off to the low end of about 122 for industrial and manufacturing.
The geology figures are about 990 hires for environmental, 550 for petroleum and 70 for hardrock. And under geophysics, they’re 180 for environmental, 175 for petroleum and 64 for hardrock.
Good Career Choice
While admitting an awful lot of bias, I personally maintain that the engineering and geoscience professions are the greatest ones out there. They provide good incomes and meaningful work — work that generates wealth, supports the public and serves the public interest.
Reports are starting to suggest that the recovery is underway. In Alberta, the oilsands are turning around, albeit at not as harried a pace as before. On a developed world basis, some economists say a slow and careful recovery is at hand.
The challenges society faces are complicated, global and continual. Engineers and geoscientists will be at the forefront of meeting those challenges, just as they’ve always been.
Please contact me with your questions and concerns at president@apega.ca. I look forward to hearing from you soon.
More Info
Engineering & Technology
Labour Market Study
www.engineerscanada.ca
Links of Interest,
left side of home page
APEGGA Labour Market Assessment
www.apega.ca
Is the End in Sight for Tight Labour Supply?
March 2008 PEGG Online
(story links to full report)
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